The day comes when remaining the same becomes more painful than the risk to grow. And when that happens there are many goodbyes. We leave old patterns, old friends, old lovers, old ideas, and some cherished beliefs. Loss and growth are so often one and the same.
Phoebe Eng, late 20th c.
It is easy to miss incremental shifts over time. The universe is dynamic and ever-changing. We are experts in the way the world used to be. FLUX is a persistent state of affairs. This means we must constantly check our own knowledge base as it ages out of currency and decays over time.
"In 2013 Julio Rotemberg, an economist, proposed a theory of what drove once-in-generation shifts like the depression in the 1930s or the great inflation of the 1970s. The central bank would be blamed. Then it would absorb the criticisms and change course. Monetary policymakers were, in effect, engaged in a decades-long process of trial and error."
A moment of penitence has struck again today- and not just in America.
"For months there has been turmoil in financial markets and growing evidence of stress in the world economy. You might think that these are just the normal signs of a bear market and a coming recession. But, as our special report this week lays out, they also mark the painful emergence of a new regime in the world economy - a shift that may be as consequential as the rise of Keynesianism after the second world war, and the pivot to free markets and globalization in the 1990s."
Russia’s attack on Ukraine is redrawing the world’s energy map, ushering in a new era in which the flow of fossil fuels is influenced by geopolitical rivalries as much as supply and demand.
Investors have been forced to rethink nearly all of their assumptions in the past two years. In this unusually tumultuous span, the world has seen a deadly pandemic, the quickest global economic recession, and rebound in memory, unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy contortions, supply-chain disarray, armed conflict in Europe with nuclear overtones - the list goes on.
We live in a very turbulent time; the range of possible outcomes is so much wider now.
